29/10/2009 16:24
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Τερματίζεται ανεπίσημα η ύφεση στις ΗΠΑ

Οι Ηνωμένες Πολιτείες βγήκαν από την ύφεση κατά την διάρκεια του καλοκαιριού καθώς το ακαθάριστο εγχώριο προϊόν(AEΠ),αυξήθηκε στο τρίτο τρίμηνο του έτους κατά 3,5%, σύμφωνα με τη πρώτη εκτίμηση που έδωσε σήμερα στη δημοσιότητα το αμερικανικό υπουργείο Εμπορίου.

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  1. jjj avatar
    jjj 29/10/2009 17:02:38

    London, 29 October 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service has today placed the A1 foreign and local currency ratings of the government of Greece on review for possible downgrade.


    The country ceilings for bonds and bank deposits that apply to Greece are Aaa (like the rest of the Eurozone) and are not affected by the review.


    "The deterioration of the fiscal position raises serious questions about the sustainability of Greek public finances and the problem will be compounded by a less favourable global economic environment going forward," says Arnaud Marθs, a Senior Vice President in Moody's Sovereign Risk Group.


    "The new Greek government, which came to power on 4 October, has unveiled revised deficit figures for 2008 and 2009 showing a sharp deterioration of public finances relative to the previously reported estimates. Although the recession is less severe in Greece than in many other developed economies, the projected deficit for 2009 has been revised upwards, potentially to as high as 12.5%. This is more than twice the level of the previous forecast and substantially higher than the Eurozone average. The magnitude of the revision perpetuates Moody's longstanding concerns about the transparency and reliability of official statistics in Greece," says Mr. Marθs.


    Moody's says that, more than the immediate damage suffered by the government's balance sheet this year, the rating action is underpinned by the risk that the stabilisation of debt metrics will be more difficult to achieve in an economic environment that is now less supportive than that seen prior to the crisis.


    "The likelihood that Greece can 'grow' out of its government indebtedness post-crisis as it did pre-crisis is minimal," says Mr. Marθs, "particularly since the help provided by interest rate convergence, an infrastructure investment boom and a fast-growing European economy earlier in the decade will no longer be there."


    The robust economic expansion of the past two decades was also supported by strong credit and wage growth, neither of which was sustainable. Investors also increasingly discriminate between different Eurozone sovereign ratings and Moody's expects Greece may see more lasting upward pressure on interest rates than current A1 rating peers like Slovakia, given Greece's less praiseworthy fiscal credentials.


    "Rather, Moody's sees a risk that the Greek economy's large competitiveness deficit, which has translated into equally large current-account deficits (up to 14% of GDP), is eroding the country's growth potential, i.e. the government's revenue base," underlines Mr. Marθs.


    "If left unaddressed, this would push the economy and public finances into an inexorable decline," adds Mr. Marθs. "Such a scenario would not be consistent with a stable rating outlook, nor, over time, with Greece maintaining its A1 sovereign ratings."


    Against this lacklustre background for trend growth, Moody's emphasises that a stabilisation of public finances in the short-to-medium term will essentially rely on the capacity of the government to effect structural cuts of expenditure and increase its tax revenues.


    Moody's notes that the new government has underlined its awareness of the problem and expressed its intention to aggressively pursue fiscal consolidation. The failure of previous government reforms to achieve meaningful results (Greece's public deficit has never fallen below 3% of GDP since it adopted the euro) and the ongoing deterioration of the deficit in 2009 illustrate the magnitude of the challenge.


    Moody's ratings review will aim to assess whether the new government will be able to harness the necessary social consensus to achieve a credible consolidation of public finances over the next few years. The review will also try to determine whether economic reform by the new government could help to restore the competitiveness of the economy quickly enough to prevent the gradual decline of the country's growth potential.


    The findings of the review will determine whether Greece's sovereign ratings should be downgraded to the mid-A range, but also whether the likely outlook for the ratings going forward is stable or if they remain on a downward trajectory. In line with its usual practice, Moody's intends to complete its review within three months.


    It should be noted that Moody's also changed the outlook on the Portuguese government's Aa2 ratings to negative today, citing concerns similar to those it expresses about Greece, such as the country's growth model and the inability of successive governments to rein in budget deficits.


    The previous rating action on Greece was implemented on 25 February 2009, when Moody's changed the outlook on the government's A1 ratings to stable from positive.


    The principal methodology used in rating the government of Greece was Moody's sovereign bond rating methodology, published in September 2008 and available on www.moodys.com in the Rating Methodologies sub-directory under the Research & Ratings tab. Other methodologies and factors that may have been considered in the process of rating this issuer can also be found in the Rating Methodologies sub-directory on Moody's website.

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